Shipping Rates Diverge Between China and Major Trading Partners
Recently, shipping rates from China to its major trading partners have changed quite a bit. While rates for shorter trips to Southeast Asia have been rising, costs for longer trips to the West Coast of the United States have been dropping. This difference highlights how demand and capacity vary across important global trade routes.
Rising Shipping Rates to Southeast Asia
Recent Trends in Southeast Asia Shipping Rates
Since mid-October, shipping rates for routes to Southeast Asia have been going up. Jin Er, who manages Asia route operations at Southeast Logistics Group in Ningbo, has noticed a big increase in customer inquiries and bookings. As a result, he’s been arriving at the office earlier to keep up with the workload.
For example, the price for a forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) from Ningbo to Thailand jumped from about $600 in late September to nearly $1,000 last week. Similarly, rates from Ningbo to Myanmar increased from around $1,200 to about $1,500 during the same time, according to data from Ningbo Customs.
Jin mentions that faster shipping services offered by companies like Maersk Line can cost as much as $2,000, although prices to places like Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam are a bit lower.
Declining Shipping Rates to the US West Coast
Current Situation for US West Coast Shipping Rates
On the flip side, Liang Ying, who manages US routes from the same office, has been facing a different challenge. Since November, shipping rates for routes to the US West Coast have been decreasing. Sometimes, these rates have even dipped below those for some shorter regional services.
For instance, freight rates from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the Port of Los Angeles fell from about $3,100 per FEU in November to around $2,800 this week. They even briefly dropped to $1,600 in December, which is quite rare for US trade lanes.
Factors Influencing Shipping Rates
Demand and Capacity Affecting Freight Prices
According to Qian Hanglu, an analyst at Ningbo Shipping Exchange, weak demand in the US is causing excess capacity on US routes. This oversupply is pushing freight rates down.
As the Chinese New Year approaches, which is a busy time for shipping, several companies plan to raise rates for US West Coast routes by about $1,000 per FEU starting in January 2026. However, whether these increases will stick depends on how supply and demand change in the coming weeks.
Strong Trade Flows to Southeast Asia
Impact of Trade Agreements on Shipping Rates
Since October, freight rates for routes to Thailand and Vietnam have been on the rise. Even though prices have eased a little recently, they are still relatively high. This increase reflects strong trade between China and Southeast Asia, boosted by favorable policies from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
Statistics show that ASEAN has remained China’s largest trading partner from January to November 2025, with total trade increasing by 8.5 percent year-on-year to about 6.82 trillion yuan, or $976.78 billion.
Challenges in Shipping Capacity
Container Ship Sizes and Port Limitations
Chen Jianwei, a researcher from the University of International Business and Economics, points out that although many new container ships have been delivered recently, most of them are very large, holding over 10,000 twenty-foot equivalent units. Unfortunately, several Southeast Asian ports cannot accommodate these mega ships due to limitations with water depth and infrastructure.
In contrast, these large vessels are mainly used on routes to the US, leading to a surplus of capacity on those lanes.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Shipping Rates
As we think about the future of shipping rates, it seems clear that different regions will continue to experience different trends. The strong demand for Southeast Asia routes may keep prices high, while the US routes might see further fluctuations based on demand.
Rising rates may continue for Southeast Asia routes due to increased trade.
US West Coast rates could remain low if demand does not pick up.
Capacity issues in Southeast Asian ports might affect shipping options.
Overall, the shipping industry is facing a complex mix of factors, and keeping an eye on these changes will be important for everyone involved in global trade.
